Tobacco Smokers Have High Probability of Transition to Dependence
First-time smokers have a 68 percent chance of sooner or later becoming nicotine dependent, according to a recent estimate based on national survey data. The probability of first-time alcohol, cocaine, and cannabis users transitioning to dependence was much less. For cocaine and cannabis, about half of the eventual cases of dependency occurred within 4 and 5 years, respectively, after first use. For alcohol and nicotine, half of the dependencies developed in 13 and 27 years, respectively. Estimates were based on self-report data from 15,918 nicotine, 28,907 alcohol, 7,389 cannabis, and 2,259